The study says that the growth of the output in China may decrease by the next thirty years

According to a new report from Oxford Economics, the potential growth of China can decrease from about 4 % in 2020 to less than 2 % by the fifties.

This is because of the country The workforce shrinks at an advanced rateWith fertility rates without “replacement levels”, as new workers are equal to the amount of individuals who leave work.

But there is not only the main issue of not having enough people to do the legendary work to preserve the movement of the economy, there is also an impact on low consumption-and therefore a less investment, a slower pace of innovation, and the increase in government debt as leaders seek to support the oldest population who have fewer people to provide them.

“As the population is old, you are often younger than the older pillars due to low birth rates. This raises the dependency rate, as fewer people of working age support a growing number of retirees,” wrote Marco Santanyilo and Benjamin Trevis at late last week. ))

In fact, for each The world’s population reviewThe birth rate in China was 7.24 live births per 1,000 people in 2025. In contrast, this number was 11 in the United States in countries like Canada, the birth rate reached 9.82 per 1000 people, and 10 per 1,000 people in the United Kingdom

As a result, the economy accounts in Oxford will change the dependency rate in China (the inhabitants of the age of 16 years compared to people between the ages of 65 years or older) by 60 percentage points between 2010 and 2060.

In Thailand, this number sits with more than 40 percentage points, while Brazil is about 35 points.

On the contrary, the United States is slightly over 10 and the United Kingdom in about 15 years, although economists point out that “dependency rates in advanced economies will rise more slowly … because advanced economies are already suffering from increased dependency rates, so the starting point is higher.”

Advanced economies also have another option available to them: running GDP with work collected from all over the world.

“Immigration helps to reduce some pressure by increasing the population of the work. For example, we have shown that in the United States, if immigration grows from 1.1 million in 2023 to 1.5 million by 2033 and settled after that, it will provide a noticeable payment of economic capabilities by 2050,” explained by Santanilo and Trivis.

Retirement question

In developed countries like the United States, the conversation about the decrease in the number of births and aging has become the prevailing.

About fertility, for example, the richest man in the world, Elon Musk had already weighted. Responding to a center on low American birth rates on its social media site x Earlier this year, Musk wrote, “Low birth rates will end civilization”

Likewise, figures like Larry Find from Blackrock called on the government to start a national conversation about the public’s need for retirement, rather than relying on the state to obtain support.

he CNN said Earlier this year: “One of the main problems in America is that retirement is not bad in the problem of the top Fortune 500 Companies. We provide adequate support to our employees as they get the adequacy of retirement.

“It is further, we refuse to talk about how we get more expanding our economy with more Americans participating in that. For this reason we must have a conversation in Washington, and this should be considered a national priority and a national promise for all Americans.”

To this end, the Oxford Economics report shows that the debt ratio to GDP in America can exceed 250 % by 2060 as the government tries to keep pace with payments to support its advanced residents.

Economists wrote: “In economies with less advanced social safety networks, the burden of the elderly population is increasingly on families through the responsibilities of providing informal care,” Economists wrote.

Meanwhile, in countries with more “generous” luxury systems: “without reform, such as raising retirement ages or enhancing workforce participation, many social welfare systems cannot become unnecessary. Financial space.”