Trump’s tariff is also formed, does America really win?

When it comes to tariffs, President Trump is clear: America wins.

Since his administration imposes a comprehensive tariff around the world, President Trump argues that import taxes will make America "great" and "rich," Make the country again "Most countries out of respect anywhere in the world," While entering a "Golden Age."

But the reality until now proves that it is different.

The definitions raise extreme uncertainty in the United States and around the world – and it is not yet clear how everything will end.

Here are five points explaining the effects of definitions, from Main Street Usa to China.

The United States began to feel the effects

For several months, the complete effect of Trump’s definitions was not completely clear.

It was a great reason that Trump put some customs tariffs – including a 10 percent tax on almost everything it imports in the United States – but it was the last of many others. Many companies also rushed to import things before the start of the customs tariff and then stopped from passing the full costs of the definitions that were implemented for consumers.

But this began to change.

Inflation picks up, with both Consumer enlargement and Separate enlargement It is preferred by the Federal Reserve showing prices more than the previous month.

The labor market also started showing the signs of cooling. A report issued by the Ministry of Labor last week showed that 73,000 jobs were added only in July, as less than 100,000 jobs were expected.

It has worsened: The report said that the United States added 258,000 jobs less in the previous two months compared to drinking. In response, Trump opened fire Supreme Officer Who was responsible for collecting data, accusing her – without evidence – to manipulate numbers.

In addition to the labor market, the economy grows more slowly. Data last week showed the US gross local product Slow down is much slower In the first half of this year more than the previous two years.

But the full impact on the United States was not here yet

The effects of definitions are likely to become larger.

Trump has long claimed that the customs tariff would pay for the countries that want to export to the country. In fact, most economists say the costs of customs tariffs are likely to be divided: some costs will be paid by exporters abroad, some of them are imported in the United States, some of them by American consumers.

Yale’s budget laboratory was estimated last week that the average cost of Trump’s tariff for the American family It will be 2,400 dollars This year, with clothes and textiles you likely see the largest effects.

Contrary to Trump’s repeated allegations that the customs tariff will enhance the economy, experts believe that the economy will become weaker, with high inflation and slow growth growth. It is also possible that last week the weak labor market report will stimulate more discussions on whether the economy can even Enter the recession.

There is one consolation: for the largest part, Trump’s tariff is not high as it was unveiled for the first time in April.

Yale’s budget laboratory now estimates the average actual tariff rate It is about 18.3 percentCompared to its initial estimate of an average rate More than 20 percent After Trump "Editing Day" Announcement in April – but this is still about six times about what the Americans used to push before Trump returned to the White House.

Here is the other thing that must be taken into account: the definitions, according to the Yale Budget Lab Laboratory, will remain at its highest levels since 1935.

The United States will raise funds from customs tariffs – but it is still very debtor

Trump often described the revenues that the United States can raise from the definitions as another justification to impose.

Indeed, the money is coming. According to the data kept by the Treasury, the United States has raised so far About 150 billion dollars Since the definitions have entered.

You can introduce Yale Budget Minists more than $ 2 trillion during the period from 2026 to 2035.

This is a large amount of money. The problem is that the United States is still in debt – and other Trump policies, especially tax tax reduction and spending, which he calls "Beautiful beautiful Bill," will Increased debt. The Congress Budget Office estimates that the Republican Party’s bill will increase the federal debt by $ 2.4 trillion.

In other words, the definitions will already bring money, but it will not be possible to bring Trump’s policies to increase the national debt.

Another important thing that must be taken into account is that predicting how behavior will change as a result of definitions, which means that the Trump administration claims about the amount of money that can be incorrect.

American families can start spending imported goods less because they will be more expensive in general. Foreign business can also start lower shipping to the United States, which reduces the money that the United States eventually earns from the definitions.

The global economy enters the unknown water

For decades, the United States was a reliable export market for everything from Chinese phones to French wine. Not anymore.

The equivalent definitions will change and countries around the world will feel influenced. International Monetary Fund The global economy is estimated 3 percent will grow this year, a decrease from 3.3 percent last year – with some of this growth that slows down due to Trump’s tariff.

This is not as bad as many – including the International Monetary Fund – were afraid at first, but as the report also shows, the world still faces a period of "Constant uncertainty." Translation: No one knows exactly what it will end.

One of the possible results is that countries can be released less for the United States and start searching for other markets – with unpredictable consequences all over the world.

The largest unknown centers around China. Although the United States has not yet provided a trade deal with China – the only major economy so far I stood up To Trump on the definitions – there is a fear that the Asian economic giant will start directing more of its exports to other markets outside America.

"Many of these imported goods that no longer find a house in the United States will end up finding a house elsewhere," Michael Pierce, an economist at Oxford Economic Company, a global economy consultant in New York, says.

Analysts refer to a concrete example to explain how American definitions can have unintended consequences: electric cars from China.

Current America A strong tariff On Chinese car imports have already helped pay many Chinese EV makers to focus elsewhere, especially in the European market. The cheapest Chinese EVS shipments have increased to Europe to the point that the European Union was forced to do so Lifting her duties sharply Last year, trying to avoid immersion with more charges.

Likewise, Trump’s latest tariff risks the Domino influence, prompting other countries to lift their barriers on all kinds of goods.

"One thing of global commercial wars is that they tend to spread," Pierce says. "Ultimately protective from the United States will protect the wine in another place."

Trump gets his commercial victory – but the rest of the world gets angry

Many people around the world have expressed frustration because their governments agreed – under pressure – on the Trump tariff.

For many, it was a bitter pill for swallowing. French Prime Minister Francois Bayro called on the European deal – which was struck by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Layen – a moment of "surrender."

The negative reaction was often doubled after Trump also claimed that countries like Japan have agreed to hundreds of millions of dollars in the investments that will be implemented He has "direction."

In the second largest economy in Asia, officials rushed to clarify that they are mostly loans. However, a former official in the Japanese Ministry of Commerce And invite her "insulting."

"I call this surrender psychology," Alicia Herro, the Senior Economist in Asia and the Pacific Ocean of the Natixis in Hong Kong, says. "Everyone surrenders."

This may lead to a reaction in the short term by foreign consumers against the United States-closer to how The Canadians took revenge Against Trump’s tariff by avoiding American products.

But there may be long -term consequences to predict. Analysts say Trump’s introductory tactics, for example, can change how countries are offered – or ready to interact with them – in the United States, which leads to the erosion of any confidence or goodwill that America may be.

Garcia Herro believes it will be in the end "Harmful to the United States in the long run" It will lead to "Recover."

"There are no islands, only sticks," She says about President Trump’s tariff. "This is very difficult to swallow."

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